It opens for the year 2019, a period of great uncertainty motivated by changes in both the world and national economies.
The trade war between the US and China, the foreseeable rise in interest rates at the end of next year, the influence that the end of the European Central Bank's asset purchase program will have, the situation in Italy and its fiscal confrontation with the European Union, the problems that Brexit can pose, the political situation in Spain with a possible call for General elections and the approval of budgets in the tight rope, are some of the most important aspects that will decisively influence the evolution of the economy and of the financial markets.
Undoubtedly, one way to reduce uncertainty when investing and therefore correctly quantify the risk is to have as much information as possible.
We present some data and economic forecasts extracted from reports and opinions of specialized consultants and managers, which may help to quantify the risks when selecting the investments to be made in the 2019.
The fund manager Rodeco, in the report she has made on the forecasts of profitability of investments for the five years 2019-2023, exposes the assets that will provide higher annual returns.
Firstly, equity investment in emerging countries stands out with a forecast of 4,5% (they produce and at the same time consume 60% of world GDP), followed by stock market investment in developed countries and raw materials, both with a forecast of 4% and in real estate with publicly traded with a review of 3,25%.
According to the ranking from the technical aspect, elaborated at the end of 2018, by esbolsa, currently the European sectors with more strength in the medium term are those of Renewable Energies, Food Producers, Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology and real estate development, in the market North American highlights the sector of mobile telecommunications, supermarkets and pharmacies, health services and public services.
For the fund manager Pimco, in its forecasts it considers that the growth in 2019 will slow down although without reaching the recession and recommends prudence to the investors before the possibility of a worsening of the market conditions, recommending for example the investment in rent variable in the US market, considering that they are currently more profitable than in the rest of the markets or investment in commodities and more specifically in oil due to the rise in the price of crude oil as a result of the US sanctions imposed on Iran.
As regards the real estate sector, analysts estimate that the upward trend in the construction and real estate brokerage sector will continue at least until the 2020.
In the economic forecasts of Funcas, it establishes that during the 2018 the construction of houses will have increased by 7,5% and that during the 2019 it will grow around 6,2%.
According to data from the Ministry of Development, in the third quarter of this year the annual increase in the average price of free housing stood at 3,2% compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching € 1.598 per square meter.
The Standard & Poor's credit rating agency, in its report on the Real Estate market in Spain, states that in the year 2019 the price of housing will increase by 4,3%, 3,5% at 2020 and 3% at 2021.
In the first months of the 2019, a significant increase in the demand for residential assets is foreseen, in the fear that interest rates will increase at the end of the year, which would increase the price of mortgages.
Without a doubt, when it comes to investing, the best way to deal with the economic uncertainties that arise for 2019 and reduce the risks of investments will be the diversification of them.
A possibility of investment in the real estate sector that allows this diversification is, through the so-called REITS (Real Estate Investments Trust) that were born in the 60 years of the last century in the United States and that have subsequently been implemented in Europe, They are companies that invest and own a large number of real estate properties and share profits among their shareholders in the form of dividends through the income they earn from the rents of their properties.
REITS can be invested, either by directly buying shares in the stock markets or through specialized investment funds in this type of investment. In Spain, a similar figure is the so-called Socimis (Listed investment companies in the real estate market), which are quoted in the continuous market or in the MAB.
Investments in real estate assets
Another way to invest in the real estate market and that also allows diversifying investments and therefore also reducing risk, are undoubtedly investments in real estate assets through real estate crowdfunding platforms such as icrowdhouse.
Icrowdhouse facilitates being able to participate in investments of different types of real estate projects and assets to both large investors and people with little economic capacity, with the difference with respect to investments in REITS or Socimis, than in investments made through real estate crowdfunding It is the investor who decides in which type of real estate investments he wishes to participate and in the previous ones it is the management bodies of the real estate investment funds, which decide the investment projects in which they participate.
Investment opportunities in Icrowdhouse are established through subscription of shares in a limited company that is the promoter of each investment project.
In investments through real estate crowdfunding, it is the investor who decides in which type of investments to participate, unlike what happens with investment funds, or real estate investment companies, that investment projects are decided by the Management bodies of these entities.