It opens for the year 2019, a period of great uncertainty motivated by changes in both the world economy and the national one.
The trade war between the US and China, the foreseeable rise in interest rates at the end of next year, the influence that the end of the European Central Bank's asset purchase program will have, the situation in Italy and its fiscal confrontation with the European Union, the problems that Brexit can pose, the political situation in Spain with a possible call for General elections and the approval of budgets on the tightrope, are some of the most important aspects that will decisively influence the evolution of the economy and financial markets.
Undoubtedly, one way to reduce uncertainty when investing and therefore correctly quantify risk is to have as much information as possible.
We present some data and economic forecasts extracted from reports and opinions of specialized consultants and managers, which may help to quantify the risks when selecting the investments to be made in 2019.
The fund manager Rodeco, in the report it has prepared on the investment profitability forecasts for the five-year period 2019-2023, sets out the assets that will provide the highest annual returns.
The investment in equities in emerging countries stands out in the first place with a forecast of 4,5% (they produce and consume 60% of world GDP), followed by investment in the stock market in developed countries and in raw materials, both with a forecast of 4% and publicly traded real estate with a revised 3,25%.
According to the ranking from the technical aspect, prepared at the end of 2018, by esbolsa, currently the European sectors with the most strength in the medium term are those of Renewable Energies, Food Producers, Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology and real estate development, in the market In North America, the sector of mobile telecommunications, supermarkets and pharmacies, health services and public services stand out.
For the fund manager Pimco, in its forecasts it considers that growth in 2019 will slow down although without reaching recession and recommends prudence to investors in the face of the possibility of a worsening of market conditions, recommending, for example, investment in income variable in the US market, considering that they are currently more profitable than in the rest of the markets or investing in “commodities” and more specifically in oil given the rise in the price of crude oil as a result of the US sanctions imposed on Iran.
With regard to the real estate sector, analysts estimate that the upward trend in the construction sector and real estate brokerage will continue at least until 2020.
In Funcas' economic forecasts, it establishes that during 2018 the construction of homes will have increased by 7,5% and that during 2019 it will grow by around 6,2%.
According to data from the Ministry of Development, in the third quarter of this year the annual increase in the average price of free housing stood at 3,2% compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching € 1.598 per square meter.
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's, stated in its report on the Real Estate market in Spain, that in 2019 the price of housing increased by 4,3%, 3,5% in 2020 and 3 % in 2021.
In the first months of 2019, a significant increase in the demand for residential assets is expected, given the fear that at the end of the year interest rates will increase, which would make the price of mortgages more expensive.
Undoubtedly, when investing, the best way to face the economic uncertainties that arise for 2019 and reduce the risks of investments, will be to diversify them.
One possibility of investment in the real estate sector that allows this diversification is, through the so-called REITS (Real Estate Investments Trust) that were born in the 60s of the last century in the United States and that have subsequently been implemented in Europe, companies are investing and have lots of real estate and distribute profits to shareholders as dividends through the income they earn for vacation properties.
You can invest REITS, either by directly buying shares on the stock markets or through investment funds specialized in this type of investment. In Spain, a similar figure is called Socimis (Listed investment companies in the real estate market), which are listed on the continuous market or on the MAB.
Investments in real estate assets
Another way of investing in the real estate market and that also allows diversifying investments and therefore also reducing risk, are undoubtedly investments in real estate assets through real estate Crowdfunding platforms such as icrowdhouse.
Icrowdhouse makes it easier for large investors and people with little economic capacity to participate in investments of different types of projects and real estate assets, with the difference with respect to investments in REITS or Socimis, than in investments made through real estate crowdfunding It is the investor who decides in what type of real estate investments he wishes to participate and in the previous ones are the management bodies of the real estate investment funds, which decide the investment projects in which they participate.
Investment opportunities in Icrowdhouse are established through the subscription of shares in a limited company that is the promoter of each investment project.
In investments through real estate crowdfunding, it is the investor who decides in what type of investments to participate, unlike what happens with investment funds, or real estate investment companies, that investment projects are decided by the investors. Management bodies of these entities.
